More Residential Sites Coming Our Way

The Alexandra site attracted 6 bids when tender closed yesterday. With top bid at $288.4m, this equates to $639 psf ppr. The 99-yr site can build abt 400 units, <= 40 storeys high. Estimated break even cost at $1000 - $1100 psf.
Land: 8,558.9 sqm, GFA: 41,939 sqm [Pending]

Its neighbouring site, The Metropolitan, fetched $350 psf ppr in Nov 05.

Other residential sites:
(1) Boon Lay Way/Lakeside (beside Lakeside MRT) * URA-BoonLay *
Land: 22,000.9 sqm, GFA: 77, 003 sqm, $205.6m ($248 psf ppr) [Dec 07]
(2) Simei St 4 (near Simei MRT) * URA-Simei *
Land: 32,210.5 sqm, GFA: 74, 084 sqm, $236.1m ($296 psf ppr) [Jan08]
(3) Choa Chu Kang Rd/Woodlands Rd (current Ten Mile Junction, abv B.Panjang LRT)
Land: 15,645.2 sqm, Residential GFA: 23, 634 sqm, Commercial GFA: 11,259 sqm (Rejected as bid price was too low) [Apr 08]

* URA-Redhill , ST-Redhill , URA-CCK , AsiaOne-CCK *

Nov CPI at 4.2%

Wow! 4.2%, beating last mth record high!

Nov CPI:
Mth-to-Mth: 0.6% (Last mth: 1.3%)
Yr-to-Yr: 4.2% (Last mth: 3.6%)
1st 11mths 2007: 1.9%

* SingStat-Nov CPI , AsiaOne-Nov CPI , AsiaOne-Inflation *

*****

Some pple's salary oni adjusted once a yr, but inflation is rising every mth. What's worse, if the annual increment is lower than inflation. Seems tt everything is back to Sq1, or is there really an improvement in living standards?

What a Merry Christmas!

Festive Mood Sets In?

Some 40 estates were put up for en-bloc sale fr Oct, but <10 deals were sealed and some closed without any bids.

This yr, collective sales was at a record of $12.4b, up fr last yr's $8.2b. So, is the mkt cooling? Some cited reasons to current slowed mkt: volatility in stock mkts, sub-prime woes, tightened en-bloc sales, unrealistic asking prices and developers have already acquired numerous sites.

Here are some of the enbloc sales w/o bidders & their indicative prices:
(1) Spanish Village (Farrer Rd) - $878m
(2) Villa delle Rose (Holland Rd) - $ 700m
(3) Elizabeth Towers (Mt Elizabeth) - $673m
(4) Chancery Cour (Dunearn Rd) - $468m
(5) Royalville (Sixth Ave) - $350m

* AsiaOne-Enbloc *

*****

Festive season is here ... ... Hari Raya Haji, Christmas, New Year and then Chinese New Year. Everyone is too busy with the celebration, pple jus wanna hv fun now after a yr of hardwork :).
*toast* Cheers!

Malls Rental Going Up

Rents in Orchard Rd central rose by 17.2% this yr, compared to 9.9% for malls at its fringe, and 7.5% for suburban malls.

4Q Ave Rental ($ psf):
(1) Orchard (central)-Wisma, Ngee Ann City: $45.50
(2) Marina Centre, City Hall, Bugis: $30.20
(3) Suburgan-Tampines Mall, Jurong Pt: $29.00
(4) City fringe-Great World City, Novena Sq: $24.10
(5) Orchard (fringe)-Park Mall, Tanglin Mall: $22.40

* ST-MallsRental , AisaOne-SpecialistMalls *

Beach Road - The Next Hot Spot?

1H2008 Government Land Sale (GLS)

1H08:
(1) 17 new sites: 12 residential, 1 commercial, 3 hotel, 1 white
(2) 20 unsold sites fr 2H07: 9 residential, 2 commercial, 7 hotel, 1 white, 1 comm/res

These sites can yield abt 8,250 pte residential units, 410k sqm GFA of comm space and 5,850 hotel rooms.

Confirmed list: 11 sites - 8 res, 2 hotel, 1 white
Reserved list: 26 sites - 13 res (incl 3 EC), 3 comm, 8 hotel, 1 white, 1 comm/res

* URA-GLS *

New Definition for Development Baseline

The revised definition of 'Dev Baseline' will take effect from 1 Jan 08, where the value of an approved development will be its dev baseline, above which DC (Dev Charge) will be payable. No longer can historical baseline values in MP1958 and MP1980 be used; which saw some landowners need not have to pay DC due to high historical baselines. But for those landowners who have not carried out development on their land yet, the govt has 'safeguarded' the historical baseline up to the use and intensity allowed in MP2003.

* URA-Revised , URA-Baseline Guide *

Oct CPI at 3.6%

At 3.6%, it was the highest in 16 yrs!

Oct CPI: 101.8
Mth-to-Mth: 1.3% (Last mth: -0.3%)
Yr-to-Yr: 3.6% (Last mth: 2.7%)
1st 10mths 2007: 1.6%

* SingStat-Oct CPI , AsiaOne-Inflation , AsiaOne-RealIntRates *

One More Mall

Iluma, a new $160m entertainment centre at Bugis developed by Jack Investment. It sits on a 95,799 sf site, and rentals are expected to be in the range of $10 - $30 psf. It is expected to be completed by 4Q08.

* CNA-Iluma *

*****

More malls???

Balestier Terraces Enbloc Sealed

15 FH terrace owners in Balestier (Jln Bunga Raya) sold their properties collectively for $61m, making each owner richer by abt $4m.

Land area occupied by the houses is about 24k sf. But if a road can be included as well (subjects to SLA approval), then the area can expand to abt 33k sf. The plot, with a plot ratio of 2.8, can build approximate 56units of 1,500sf each, up to 36-storey high. DC payable is abt $263k. This worked out to be abt $739psf ppr.

The buyers are a Chinese property developer with a Singaporean partner.

* AsiaOne-BT:Enbloc , AsiaOne-ST:Enbloc *

Changes to Executive Condo (EC) Policies

HDB announced changes to EC policies yesterday.

(1) 1st Timer
- Developers need to reserve >=90% of the units for 1st timers in the 1st mth of the sale (align to DBSS sale).
- Allows to buy a 2nd new EC, HDB or DBSS flat after a 30-mth wait upon disposal of their ECs (align to private housing owner buying a new HDB requirement). Resale levy may be payable:

(a) Taken $30k CPF housing grant for 1st EC? YES
--> Buying 2nd new HDB? YES
--> $55k levy payable upon booking of 2nd flat

(b) Taken $30k CPF housing grant for 1st EC? YES
--> Buying 2nd new EC/DBSS or resale flat? YES
--> No levy payable

(2) 2nd Timer
No resale levy payable when buying a new EC/DBSS (align to DBSS policy).

EC's History:
In 1995, govt introduced Executive Condominium Housing Scheme (ECHS) to bridge the gap between public and private housing. So that professional couples with household income <=$10k/mth can own a 'private' housing with some restrictions, which slowly free up after 5yrs and 10yrs. To date, there are 23 EC with abt 10,400 units developed and sold by private developers.

* HDB-EC , AsiaOne-EC *

*****

Good news. Hope tt govt can loosen some restrictions on foreign ownership.

Going Up?

Saw tis in today's The Sunday Times ... ...

Signs of A Cooling Market?

The white site at Marina View attracted only 2 bids, and the highest bid by Macquarie Global Property Advisers (MGPA) was only at $952.9m. This was a far cry from the 1st site's price of $2.02b, also by MGPA.

Some other areas, such as a residential parcel at Enggor St also received only 2 bids, and an office site at Tampines with only 1 bid. Investors/developers seem to have tone down with stock market volatility, credit crunch uncertainty and recent govt intervention, such as removing the deferred payment scheme.

(1) Residential/Commercial, Enggor St
Land 3,036.2 sqm, GFA: 25,504 sqm, at $233.8 mil ($852 psf ppr) [Nov 07]
(2) Commercial/Hotel/Residential, Marina View
GFA 113,580 sqm, at $952.9 mil ($780 psf ppr) [Dec 07]

* AsiaOne-MarinaView *

No Need to Cool Property Market Now

Once again, Minister Mah said that the govt is not gg to over-regulate or interfere in the (pty) mkt if they don't have to. Thus, govt is not planning any new measure to cool the mkt for now.

3Q sub-sales made up abt 22% of total sales in central S'pore; and 2wks ago, the popular Deferred Payment Scheme was removed. This followed speculation that capital gain tax may be the next card. Capital gain tax was introduced in 1996, but lifted in 2001.

* CNA-Pty Mkt *

*****

Note: One may still be liable to pay for capital gain tax if one is a pty trader ... ... * Case-NP vs IRAS *

Inflation Likely to Hit 5% in 1Q08

CPI may surge to 4 - 5% in 1Q08, and at an ave rate of 3% next yr. The previous high was 4% in Jul 1991.

The spike is due to very low CPI of 0.5% in 1Q07, and low oil prices. It will then settle down to a more 'normal' condition in 2H08.

* AsiaOne-CPI , RadarGaga-CPI *

*****

We r feeling the pinch & pressure now bcos prices from noodle, bread to electricity, transport, ie daily necessities, are all driven up due to shortages. Ytd, a sch bus driver lamented higher price in petrol and everything, and she wondered what the govt has been doing.

R pple more unhappy when the economy is flying and inflation is gg up, compared to a moderate economy where inflation is low? Don't increase in income and employment rate help to offset all these?

Btw, next yr pty tax is gg to increase too as the valuation has gone up by approx 20% ... ... CNA-AV.

3Q Employment Estimates

Employment
Employment grew by 57.6k in 3Q, lower than 2Q 64.4k. The total employment gains for 1st 9mths reaches 171.5k (2006: 176k).

(In thousands)	Employment Change					Employment Level as at Sep 2007 p
	3Q 06	4Q 06	1Q 07	2Q 07	3Q 07p
Total*	43.0	51.5	49.4	64.4	57.6	2,667.4
Manufacturing	11.3	10.9	10.1	15.9	11.8	555.3
Construction	5.6	5.8	5.4	10.9	10.8	282.7
Services	25.9	34.4	33.7	36.8	34.5	1,811.6

^{Source: MOM}

^P: Preliminary estimates

*: Data for the three major sectors do not add up to the total as the latter includes agriculture, fishing, quarrying, utilities and sewerage & waste management

Unemployment
Unemployment rate dropped to 1.7% in Sept from 2.3% in Jun, and is the lowest in a decade.

	Sep 06	Dec 06	Mar 07	Jun 07	Sep 07p
Seasonally Adjusted
Overall (%)	2.7	2.6	2.9	2.3	1.7
Resident (%)	3.6	3.6	4.0	3.1	2.3
Non-Seasonally Adjusted
Overall (%)	2.4	2.6	2.5	2.9	1.5
Resident (%)	3.2	3.6	3.4	4.0	2.1

^{Source: MOM}

^P: Preliminary estimates

Retrenchment
1,700 workers were axed in 3Q, lower than 2Q 1,918. Majority were from manufacturing, and some from service industries.

* MOM-3Q Estimates , PM Speech-NTUC *

Fed Cuts Another Quarter Point

The central bank has reduced the federal funds rate (what banks charge each other for overnight loans) to 4.5% and discount rate (what the Fed charges banks for short-term loans) to 5% to prevent the country from going into a recession. This was announced amid government's report that the economy grew at 3.9% in 3Q.

Consumer spending, which is responsible for 2/3 of the US economic activity, is showing signs of weakening, even though 3Q consumer confidence rose at 3% rate.

Employment looks more robust, with a government report showed that 110k jobs were added in Sept, while Aug hiring figure was revised from a loss of 4k to a gain of 89k.

* CNBC-Fed , MktWatch-Fed , Reuters-Fed *

A 'Cool' 2008?

Mkt is cooling, and inflation is going up ... ... these are the outlook for 2008.

Advance estimates of GDP rose at 9.4% on yr-to-yr. But forecast for next yr's economic growth is set at 4-6%, in view of higher oil prices, volatility in financial mkts and inflation.

Inflation is now expected to be at 1.5-2% this year, up from the previous forecast of 0.5-1.5%. This is expected to climb to 3.5% in 1H08, and in the range of 2-3% for 2008.

* MAS-Oct Review , CNA-Growth , AsiaOne-Growth *

No More Deferred Payment

Wef today, the Government has withdrawn the popular deferred payment schemes for all uncompleted properties, due to strong economic and property mkt conditions. The scheme was first introduced in Oct97 when the economy was in recession.

* URA-DPS Withdrawal , AsiaOne-Pty Mkt *

*****

Though not unexpected, but still came in as a little surprise to me.
The mkt gonna cool down further & speculators will hv to think twice or even thrice before jumping into the water.
Guess this also helps to reduce Bank's risks. In 1-3yrs time, when projects obtain their TOPs, many will hv to service their loans. Who knows what will happen then.

3Q07 Real Estate Data

Sale Prices:
(a) Residential: +8.3% (2Q +8.3%, 1st 9mths: +22.9%)
- Landed: +7.5% (2Q +7.1%)
- Non-landed: +8.3% (2Q +8.4%)
(b) Office: +8.1% (1st 9mths: +22.7%)
(c) Shop: +3.0% (1st 9mths: +9.5%)
(d) Industrial: +3.2% (1st 9mths: +15.8%)

Rental Prices:
(a) Residential: +11.4% (2Q +10.4%, 1st 9mths: +32.2%)
(b) Office: +14.8% (1st 9mths: +40.7%)
(c) Shop: +8.1% (1st 9mths: +17.5%)
(d) Industrial: +8.7% (1st 9mths: +22.4%)

Supply:
(a) Residential: +16.4% to 65.4k units (projects U/C and granted approval). 44.5k units expected to be ready from now till 2010. Unsold units at 38,013.
(b) Office Space: 1.4m sqm GFA available, of which 0.61m sqm expected to be completed from now till 2010.

Stock and Vacancy:
- 2 229 residential units were granted TOP.
- Vacancy rate of completed residential units at 5.4% (2Q 4.9%).

Sub-sale:
Sub-sales fell to 1 163 (2Q 1 791), and accounted for 12.7% of all sale transactions (2Q 12.1%).

* URA-3Q07Data , AsiaOne-3QHome *

*****

Up, up and away :) .

The Gurus Speak ... ...

Warren Buffet says ... ...
- He expects the US$ continues to weaken.
- He is upbeat on S.Korean stocks and interested in big companies in Asia.
- Berkshire Hathaway has bought undervalued Korean shares such as steelmaker POSCO, Kia Motors, Hyundai Steel and Shinyoung Securities.

Jim Rogers says ... ...
- He is moving his assets out of US$ and buy Chinese yuan as he expects it to quadruple in next 10yrs. He is also buying Swiss francs and Japanese yen because of carry trade.
- Bonds & stocks bull mkts are over.
- He remains bullish on commodities especially on agriculture, and is holding on to platinum, gold, silver and palladium.

Marc Faber says ... ...
- Fed lowered interest rates is contributing stock mkt bubble in US.
- Chinese assets rally (including 171% gain in CSI300 Index) & India's gain will end by Aug08.
- US$ may rebound against euro if bubbles in emerging mkts deflate, as fund mgrs will invest in US then.

* CNA-W.Buffet , IHT-J.Rogers , Bloomberg-M.Faber *

Sept US Home Sales: New & Resale

(1) Resale Homes
Resale fell 8% in Sept to record low of 5.04m units and inventory up by 0.4% to 4.4m units which equates to a 10.5mth supply. The national median price for single-family & condos dropped 4.2% (yr-to-yr) to US$211 700.

(2) New Homes
Unexpectedly, new home sales rose by 4.8% in Sept to 770k units, but still 23.3% lower than a yr ago. Median price had risen to US$238k, up by 2.5%.
The originally reported Aug figure was 795k units, but was later revised to 735k units, the slowest pace in 11yrs.

Merrill Lynch US$8.4b Write-down

Investment banking giant, Merrill Lynch, reported a US$8.4b write-down during the bank's qtrly results statement. This was the biggest qtrly loss in its 93yr history. Stanley O'Neal (ML's CEO) said the severity of the debts mkts were misjudged since July. US$7.9b was lost to CDOs and securities/loans linked to subprime mortgages.

Slumping credit mkts have led to some industry executives' heads to roll and have wiped out >20% of stock mkt value in some firms.

With this, S&P is considering lower the ratings for some CDOs managed in S'pore: Raffles Place Funding by UOB Asset Management, and Singa Funding by OCBC's Lion Capital Management.

* ML-3Q Report , Bloomberg-ML , AsiaOne-ML *

*****

So, is the shore clear? I doubt so ... ... the impact of subprime mortgages is not easy to assess because the ripples hv not settled down yet.

How abt tis ... ... CDOs & SIVs are held as off-balance-sheet items by financial institutions and this has led to NO transparency on their holdings! Read abt it: AsiaOne-Mkt Risks.

Sept CPI at 2.7%

Sep CPI: 104.2
Mth-to-Mth: -0.3% (Last mth: 0.3%)
Yr-to-Yr: 2.7% (Last mth: 2.7%)
1st 9mths 2007: 1.4%

Top 3 highest increase on yr-to-yr:
1) Healthcare 5.9%
2) Recreation & Others 4.6%
3) Food 3.7%

As oil prices hit record highs, inflation is expected to rise further.

* SingStat-Sept CPI , CNA-CPI , Bloomberg-CPI *

Worldwide Jobs Cut

(1) BBC, 1.8k jobs cut
- To integrate its TV, radio & internet news operations

(2) GMAC Financial Services, 3k jobs cut
- Abt 25% cut of its mortgage unit, Residential Capital (ResCap), due to "severe weakness in the housing market and mortgage industry".
- In 1H2007, already 2k jobs were cut

(2) Morgan Stanley, 300 jobs cut
- Hit by recent mkt turmoil, most are fr its institutional securities division in mortgages, fixed-income trading and other biz.
- Abt 2wks ago, it announced restructuring of its mortgage biz that would result in 600 jobs cut.

(3) Boston Scientific, 2.3k jobs cut
- To restructure or sale of biz units and to reduce operating expenses.

* BBC-Jobs , GMAC-Jobs , Reuters-Morgan Stanley , BostonSci-Jobs *

Sept UK's CPI at 1.8%

Britain's Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained at 1.8% in Sept (yr-to-yr), and was the 3rd month running below the central bank's target of 2%. On mth-to-mth basis, inflation rose just 0.1% from Aug.

* CNA-UK CPI *

*****

Great for keeping inflation low, but coming mths will be tough 'cos of rising oil price. Ouch!

Infill Sites, Anyone?

SLA will be releasing some small sites (enough for one home each) over the next few months. However, the sites might have been used for public purposes, such as parks, sub-stations, septic tanks. SLA will conduct certified tests before releasing them for sale, and will also outline the locations of waterpipes/sewers within the site.

Past sites released:
1991:
Braddell Rd, 9 000 sf, $402k ($45 psf)

1993:
(1) 10 Mt Sinai, 4 855 sf, $880k ($181 psf)
(2) Ceylon Rd, 5 581 sf, $1.3mil ($233 psf)
(3) 408 Dunearn Rd, 15 080 sf, $3.6mil ($239 psf)
(4) 110-112 Tamarind Rd, 11 236 sf, $1.45mil ($129 psf)

* AsiaOne-Sites *

Investment Gone Wrong

The Marina Bay Villa, once touted as the biggest developments in West Batam, Indonesia, was razed in 2005. The project was supposed to complete in 1992, but out of the 304 units, only 80 were built after 7yrs later. One owner has paid $134k for a 6 500 sf bungalow and put in another $20k in renovations.

2yrs on, the owners still drew a blank from the authorities and companies in Batam. The contract was signed in Batam and comes under Indonesian jurisdiction, but the Indonesian developer, PT Karya Sinar Batam, had since closed down and their S'pore representative, Island Club Condominium, was also not liable; hence there is no recourse to sue.

A Batam land officer believes that the houses were demolished because the building permit was invalid, and claimed that the land was owned by a S'porean.

* ST-Batam Pty , Another Owner's Woes *

*****

Some other investments gone wrong ... ...
(1) PT Magic Kingdom Island Resort Paradise, Indonesia, 2002
1 000 S'poreans paid $3.8k each to join the club, but the club went bankrupt and never started the resort project.

(2) Villa Temasek, Indonesia (Bintan), 2001
90 S'poreans paid $16k for each unit, but developer disappeared.

(3) A 816-unit Condo Project, Bangalore, 1996
40 S'poreans & M'sians lost btw US$54k - US$98k. Marketed by S'pore-based company, Chesterfield Int'l, the directors couldn't be traced when the project was aborted.

(4) Houses, China (Shandong, Qingdao), 1996
18 S'poreans paid btw $30k - $70k for each house built by Dragon Land. They turned out to be poorly constructed with no amenities.

(5) Anjung Seri Condo, M'sia (Johor Baru), 1995
37 investors paid btw RM$150k - RM$400k, but the project was never completed.

Record Bid for Upper Pickering Hotel

Hotel site at Upper Pickering St
Land 6,959 sqm, GFA: 29,227 sqm
Top Bid Price: $253.2 mil (which translates to $805 psf ppr) by Hotel Plaza Ltd (Developer UOL's hotel arm).

This set a record bid, and is >40% higher than the previous 2 hotel sites at Tanjong Pagar area:
(1) Tras St: Land 2,866 sqm, GFA 16,047 sqm, at $97.1 mil ($562 psf ppr) [Jul 07]
(2) Gopeng St: Land 2,373 sqm, GFA 19,933 sqm, at $123 mil ($573 psf ppr) [Jun 07]

* URA-Gopeng St , URA-Tras St *

*** Update ***

(1) Hotel site at Upper Pickering St was awarded to Hotel Plaza Ltd on 15 Oct 07.
Land 6,959 sqm, GFA: 29,227 sqm, at $253.2 mil ($805 psf ppr) [Oct 07]
(2) Hotel site at New Market Rd/Merchant Rd was awarded to Park Regis Investments Pte Ltd on 29 Oct 07.
Land 3,508 sqm, GFA 12,278 sqm, at $100.7 mil ($762 psf ppr) [Oct 07]

* URA-Pickering St , URA-Merchant Rd *

"A New Direction for Hong Kong"

HK Chief Executive, Donald Tsang, delivered his annual policy address yesterday.
10 mega infrastructure projects will be rolled out in the next 5yrs, which are expected to fetch about HK$100 bil/yr in economic benefits, and create 250k jobs.

Besides infrastructure development, other carrots are:
(1) Tax Reduction (for FY2008 - 2009)
- Profits tax fr 17.5% to 16.5%
- Salary tax fr 16% to 15%

(2) Financial Activities
- Integrate HK's financial industry with China
- HK as a platform for China's investment funds
- Develop Islamic finance and bond mkt

(3) Education
- Free public education for 12yrs, up from current 9yrs (wef 2009)
- Increase number of international schools

* ChinaView-Policy , ShangHaiDaily-Policy *

Marina Bay Suites

Marina Bay Suites, the 2nd and last residential block at Marina Bay Financial (MBF) will likely be launched early next year. The 65-storey project will have 223 3BR and 4BR apartments from 1,500 - 2,500 sf, and prices for smaller units are expected to cost $4m - $5m or at an ave of $3k psf.

Sub-sale prices for nearby projects:
(1) Marina Bay Residences
Highest recorded: $3.6k psf in Jun
Recent transactions (Aug): $2,061 - $3,080 psf

(2) The Sail @Marina Bay
Highest recorded: $3,301 psf in Aug
Recent transactions (Aug): $1,300 - $2,999 psf

Marina Bay Condo

Marina Bay Suites, the 2nd and last residential block at the Marina Bay Financial Centre (MBFC), will be launched next yr.

The 65-storey, 223-unit tower will have 3BR and 4BR ranging from 1,500 sf - 2,500 sf, 2 duplex penthouses on the 63rd floor, and a single-level penthouse on the 65th floor. Smaller units are expected to fetch $4m - $5m each, and average price is expected to be around $3k psf.

In Aug, nearby Marina Bay Residences units were sold for $2,061 - $3080 psf, and The Sail for $3,301 psf.

* KeppelCorp-MBS , MBSuites *

Ang Mo Kio Hotting Up

Not only condo, HDB flats are also hotting up in AMK. In Sep, average transacted price of 3Rm, 4Rm and 5Rm around MRT station were $197.5k, $339k and $474.5k respectively.

Median rental for HDB 4Rm was at $1k and 5Rm at $1.3k in 2Q07.

Tightened En-bloc Sale Procedure

To ensure transparency in en-bloc sales, more regulations are introduced into the market to minimise complaints and unfairness. The Land Titles (Strata)(Amendment) Act will take effect from today.

Changes (wef 4 Oct 2007):
1) Voting
Additional voting based on floor area, to address voting rights in a mixed development.
[ Before: Voting only based on share value.
For development <10yrs>=10yrs old, 80% approval is required]

2) Sales Committee
Regulate formation of a Sales Committee and its proceedings, such as updates of the consent level have to be done every 4wks and certified by lawyer.

3) Collective Sales Agreement (CSA)
Regulate the drafting and signing of CSA procedure. A lawyer needs to be present when signing the CSA, and a 5d cool-down period after signing the CSA.

4) Sales by Public Tender or Auction

5) Valuation by Independent Valuer

6) Funds
Management and sinking funds are to return to owners upon legal completion.

* MinLaw-LTA(Strata) , CNA-LTA(Strata) , AsisOne-Enbloc , AsiaOne-En-bloc , Forum-En-bloc *

*****

Hopefully, these can help to minimise grievances and sellers got to honour their action even if it's gonna be vy heartache ... ... Horizon Tower Case.

Upper East Coast Properties Looking Bright

Spillover from East Coast has led to prices at Upper East Coast and Bedok to rise, but some projects saw a big jump because of en-bloc rumours.

Upper East Coast:


Bedok:

Foreign Population Crosses 1mil

Estimated foreign population crossed 1 million mark in Jun this year, which grew by 14.9% over a yr, and in the same period, S'pore residents increased by 1.9%. With these, S'pore total population rose by 4.4% to 4.68mil.

Mid-yr Population Estimates:

Date	Total Population ('000) [ Resident & Non-Resident ]	Singapore Residents ('000) [ SC & PR ]
2006	4,483.90	3,608.50
2007	4,680.60	3,675.10
Chg %	4.39	1.85

* SingStat-Population *

Aug US New Home Sales Down

US Aug new homes sales slid 8.3% (lowest in 7 years) at 795k units, down by 21% from a year ago. Median sales price has also dropped by 7.5% compared to a year ago. Inventory fell 1.5% to 529k units.

2Q07 GDP growth at 3.8%, better than 1Q07 at 0.6%.
2Q07 PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) price index increased by 4.3%. Minus off volatile food & energy prices, the core PCE increased by 1.4%.
2Q07 consumer spending higher by 1.4%, but slower than 1Q07 increase at 3.7%. Aug figure rose by 0.6% which was higher than Jul increase of 0.4%.

* Bloomberg-Home Sales , CNBC-GDP , Bloomberg-Spending , CNBC-Buy House? , RadarGaga-HPI *

More En-bloc Sales

On-going en-bloc sales:

(1) Chateau Eliza at Mt Elizabeth: $115m - $120m ($2130 - $2222 psf ppr)
Site area 17 997 sf, GFA 54 000 sf and no DC payable.

(2) Toho Garden in Yio Chu Kang: $60.8m ($580 psf ppr)
Site area 86 881sf, plot ratio 1.4 and est DC payable is $9.7m

(3) Vista Park in South Buona Vista Road: $3265.7m ($680 psf ppr)
Site area 319 248 sf, 99-yr leasehold and est DP payable is $37.3m

(4) Katong Mall at East Coast Rd: Est value $175m ($600 - $650 psf)
Site area 78 158 sf, 99-yr leasehold, plot ratio 3.6

* AsiaOne-En-bloc *

Booming Vietnam

Amid booming economy, Vietnam is experiencing crunch in residential properties, office space, hotel rooms, etc. The Asian Development Bank projects Vietnam's economy to grow by 8.3% this year and 8.5% in 2008.

High-end home prices average about US$177 psf in Hanoi, and US$270 psf in Ho Chi Minh City. The Lancaster in Ho Chi Minh City was launched 3yrs ago at average of US$185.8 psf, but recently broke a record of US$464.5 psf. Foreigners, however, are not allowed to buy properties in Vietnam, unless they are residents and even then, they can only buy leasehold.

Vietnam's population is at 86 million and the average age is 24. They are spending money and this generates a growing consumer market.

Short Term Office Site

2nd 15-yr lease office site at Tampines is up for sale to ease the office crunch.
Location: Tampines Ave 5, near Tampines Regional Center
Site Area: 1.15ha
Max GFA: 11 520 sm

The 1st site at Scotts Road received 11 bids and drew a top bid of $37m or $219 psf ppr.
Location: Scotts Rd, near Newton MRT
Site Area: 1.04ha
Max GFA: 15 666 sm

Expectations for Tampines site:
- Mr Donald Han, MD of Cushman & Wakefield: $17.3m - $20m (ie $140-$160 psf ppr)
- Mr Nicolas Mak, Dir of Knight Frank: $24.8m - $32.2m (ie $200 - $260 psf ppr)

* URA-Tampines *

*** Updated on 6 Nov 07 ***

Tampines site received only 1 bid of $10m ($80.6 psf ppr), way below the expectations.

Aug CPI at 2.9%

Aug CPI: 104.5
Mth-to-Mth: 0.3% (Last mth: 2.1% due to GST hike)
Yr-to-Yr: 2.9% (Last mth: 2.6%)
1st 8mths 2007: 1.3%

Top 3 highest increase on yr-to-yr:
1) Healthcare 6%
2) Recreation & Others 4.4%
3) Transport & Communication 3.4%

As oil prices hit record highs, inflation is expected to rise further.

* SingStat-Aug CPI , AsiaOne-CPI , RadarGaga-Jul CPI *

*****

Ouch! My pocket!

26 Sep 07:
While inflation for Healthcare continues to be on the top list ... ...

$2b will be used to build more medical facilities over 8 years to cater for growing & greying population and to tackle emerging problems such as gambling addictions. "The expansion in infrastructure will in turn push up our operating budget which will have to be jointly funded by all the stakeholders: government, employers and patients."

* AsiaOne-Speech , AsiaOne-Medical , CNA-Medical *

*Gulp* We pay for growing old, we pay for increasing population, we pay for gamblers, and not forgetting we oso pay for more contagious, more advance, and more common viruses and illnesses.

Why are we seeing more people falling sick or getting illnesses at a younger age than the older generation? Are we getting more vulnerable to diseases/viruses? Are we getting more unhealthy due to the food we take or the way that food are produced? Are we getting more cautious that we rush to clinic/hospital at a slightest discomfort? Are we getting into the habit of labeling that we give names to every illnesses & then setup specialisation centres?

If one has unfortunately gotten a long-term or serious illness and is not financially sound, one either depletes his/her savings on medical and leaves little for old age; or suffers & dies at a younger age (than forecast). So, does the money that we work so hard for really give us a chance for enjoyment?

Fed Cut Interest Rates by 0.5

Stocks rose upon US Fed announcement of a 0.5 cut in its lending rate, in view of tightening credit-market and housing slump that will affect the US economy. The interest rate was cut from 5.25% to 4.75% which was the 1st cut in 4 years.

With this,
- US$ declines to 15-yr low
- Oil price raises to record high above $82/barrel

* Bloomberg-Fed , Bloomberg-Asia Stocks , CNBC-US$ , CNBC-Oil *

*****
Many must hv popped the champagnes and watch the bull runs today ... ...

Major CPF Changes

(1) Work Longer
(A) Re-employment Legislation (wef 2012)
From 2012, employers are to offer re-employment for those reaching 62 to work till age 65, and later to 67.

(B) Workfare Increase (wef Immediate)
Workfare Income Supplement (WIS) will increase from current $100/mth, and the 1st payout will be in Jan 2008.
(i) >60 years old: $200/mth
(ii) 56-60 years old: $150/mth

(2) CPF Returns
(A) Extra Interest Tier (wef Jan 2008)
Additional 1% interest rates for the 1st $60k in combined accounts (max $20k from OA). Interest earned will go into SA or RA.
(i) CPFIS Restrictions (wef Apr 2008)
The 1st $20k in both OA and SA will not be allowed for CPFIS.
Money already invested will not be affected.
(ii) OA Remains at 2.5%,
Also no change to HDB concessionary loan interest rate.

(B) SMRA Interest Rates Peg to Government Bonds (wef Jan 2008)
SMRA will peg to the yield of the 10-year S'pore Government Securities (10Y SGS) + 1%. The Government will keep 4% floor for the 1st 2 years, after which, the 2.5% floor rate will apply for all accounts.

(3) Draw-Down Age (DDA)
2007: 62
2012: 63
2015: 64
2018: 65

For those affected by deferment of DDA:
(A) D-Bonus
- For those age 50-57 in 2007 (Payout for age >55 on May 08, the rest will receive it at age 55)
- Capped at $30k
(i) 54-57: 5% of RA
(ii) 52-53: 4% of RA
(iii) 50-51: 3% of RA

(B) V-Bonus
- For voluntarily deferment
- Bonus will be given for each year of deferment, up to age 65
- 2% of RA, and capped at $30k

[Note: OA-Ordinary Account, SA-Special Account, RA-Retirement Account, SMRA-Special, Medisave and Retirement Accounts]

* MOM-CPF Reforms , MOM-Reforms (Slides) , AsiaOne-CPF , MrBrown-CPF *

Internation Schools Here Are Expanding

To cope with rising expat population in Singapore, at least 4 international schools are expanding their campuses and 1 new player is setting up a campus here next year.

- Australian Int'l School at Lorong Chuan will expand by mid 2008 to increase its intake by another 840 students. Currently, it has 1750 students from 40 countries. Waiting list: 400 students.
- Canadian Int'l School's 4th campus at Tanjong Katong will open for 1000 students this week. A central campus at Jurong West, which will have a capacity for 2000 students and be ready by Aug 2009, will house all students from its current 3 campuses of 1600 students. Waiting list: 200 students.
- The Global Indian Int'l School has about 4000 students in its Queentown and East Coast campuses. It is looking into setting up a 3rd campus in central S'pore.
- DPS Int'l School at Upper Serangoon has 1300 students from 28 countries, and planning a 2nd campus early 2008 in the east.

A new international school from Bangalore's National Public School, NPS Int'l School, will open for enrollment in Jan 2008.

1st Major UK Victim of Credit Crunch

Bank of England has pledged to provide emergency funds to Northern Rock as customers flocked its 76 branches to withdraw their savings last Friday. The UK's 3rd largest mortgage provider is the nation's 1st major victim of the global credit crunch and the nation's biggest bailout of a financial institution in 30 years. This shows that credit crunch can cripple a firm even without direct exposure to the US sub-prime mortgage market.

* Bloomberg-NR , BBC-NR *

*****
R things getting out of control with credit crunch???

18 Sep 07:
It is great to see the community is supporting the bank ... Bloomberg-NR.

Jul Retail Sales

Retail sales fell by 14.7% (to $2.6b) in July after Great S'pore Sale & pre-GST spike in June ($3b). Yr-on-yr retail sales dropped about 1.7%, mostly due to large fall in motor vehicles sales. Most retail sectors, however, posted higher sales over a year.

* SingStat-Retail Sales *

S'pore Labour Statistics

Jobs created:
1H07: 1113 800 (1H06: 81 500)

Job vacancies:
2Q07: 37 400 (1Q07: 32 200)

Unemployment rate:
2Q07: 2.3% (1Q07: 2.9%)

Wage increase (yr on yr):
2Q07: 8.5% (1Q07: 5.5%)

Labour productivity (yr on yr):
2Q07: 0.4% (1Q07: -1.3%)

Unit labour cost:
2Q07: 5.7%

Wages increase has achieved its largest rise in 2Q07 since 7yrs ago. However, a higher labour costs could damp the economy. 2Q productivity has risen by 0.4% which helped to ease the rise in overall unit labour cost.

Demand for Shophouses

Steep demand for shophouses has led to an increase in sale prices and rents, as SME companies turning to them due to short supply of office and high office rents.

8 shophouses in Telok Ayer St sold for $18.6m in Nov05, fetched $35m in Mar this year. Also, in an en-bloc sale of 4 units (6311sf) at Tras St, the transacted price was $7.7m in Nov06.

Shophouses rents at downtown areas (Tras St, Boon Tat St, Amoy St, Telok Ayer St) are commanding at $5-$6 psf/mth now, while fringe areas such as Beach Rd, rents have up from $2-$3 psf/mth to $3-$5 psf/mth.

However, shophouses rents are still much cheaper than office rents, which can be at $12-14 psf/mth in CBD and at $6-$8 psf/mth in fringe areas.

*****
Tink i saw tis in the newspaper recently, SingPost sold their HDB shop at Clementi Central at $8m. Also, SingPost reported in their annual report 06/07, the Hougang South shop was sold at $2.2m and Marine Parade shop at $5.7m.

CDL Won Iconic Site at Beach Road

The hotly contested Beach Road site, viewed by the players as the last major iconic site in town, was awarded to CDL-led consortium at $1.689b. This works out to $1068.60 psf for the potential GFA of 146 827 sqm.

To be known as South Beach, the 3.5ha site of 99-year leasehold shall hold premium office space, 2 hotels, shops and city residences. 2 tower blocks of 45 and 42 storeys will be built and the 4 conserved military buildings will be restored by 2012.

* CDL-News , URA-Award , URA-Images , AsiaOne-News *

*****
Nice, nice and vy good location ... ... if oni i got $$$ to buy :( .

Strata Landed Homes

What are strata-titled landed homes or cluster housing projects?

Strata-titled homes are homes like terraces/bungalows build on a land that is owned and shared by all the owners (just like condo). Thus these homes come with strata titles and not land titles. Communal facilities and security features may be included in a project.

With such a title, these cluster projects can go for collective sales if minimum consensus is reached (ie 80% for projects >10yrs, and 90% for projects <= 10yrs). Owners are not allowed to tear down and rebuild their houses, or make any A&A. However, foreigners may find it easier to get approval to buy these landed homes.

Some cluster housing projects:
(1) Bungalows @Hua Guan Ave
6 FH bungalows from 4200 - 4500 sf. ~$1,280 psf of built-up area or >$5.4m.
(2) Dunsfold 18 @Dunsfold Dr
18 FH bungalows from 4,155 - 4,499 sf. ~$780 psf of built-up are or >$3m.
(3) Siglap 33 @Siglap Hill
6 FH bungalows from 3,498 - 4,284 sf.
(4) Westmont @West Coast Rd
9 FH terraces and 2 semi-D. Terraces from 2,820 - 3, 498 sf, Semi-D from 2,949 - 3,079 sf.
(5) Dalla Vale @Springleaf Ave
60 semi-D from 3,218 - 3,261 sf, >$2.1m.
(6) Lornie 18 @Lornie Rd
18 FH bungalows from 4,392 - 4,930 sf, ~$1,150 psf of built-up area or >$5m.
(7) Hillcrest Villas @Hillcrest Rd
168 LH terraces, ~3,100 sf.
(8) Illoura @Old Holland Rd
28 FH Semi-D, ~4,000 sf, >$4.5m.
(9) Kings' 8 @Kings Rd
8 FH detached house from 4,898 - 5,414 sf, >$5.25m.

US August Jobs Data

The surprised 4000 US job cuts in Aug, 1st time in 4 years, has set fear that the recent market turmoil has spread to a wider US economy. Economists are expecting Fed to cut interest rates soon, which has been held for over a year at 5.25%.

Ave hourly earnings rose to US$17.50, a 0.3% increase fr July and up 3.9% on yearly basis. Unemployment rate continue to hold at 4.6%.

* Bloomberg-News , BBC-News , AsiaOne-Rates *

*****
My guess for interest rates cut: 0-0.25% ... ...

Economy Forecast

A quarterly survey of 18 economists by the Singapore Cenral Bank forecast Singapore economy growth at 7.5%, up from 6% in June poll. In his National Day Rally speech, PM Lee raised the annual growth forecast for the next 5 to 10 years to 4%-6%, up from 3%-5%.

Forecast for 2007:
- Growth 7.5% (up fr June's 6%, and 2006 at 7.9%)
- Construction 15%, Financial Services 13.5%, Manufacturing 7.2% and non-oil domestic exports 6.2%
- Unemployment 2.5% (2Q at 2.4%, lowest in 6 years)
- Inflation 1.5%
- S$1.50 against US$1

Q2 private home prices at its fastest pace in 8 years, while office rents in CBD are at 10 years high. Economists forecast GDP to expand 6.5% in 2008.

Quote:
"Despite the rosy prospects, we believe in “Being Prepared”, as the scouts would say."
~ Goh Chok Tong (Chairman, Senior Minister) in MAS' 2006/2007 Annual Report

* MAS-Opening Remarks , AsiaOne-Economy *

*****
For tis yr, the outlook still rosy provided tt the sub-prime mortgage thingy is under ctrl. Now banks are oso more cautious in their lending.

* AsiaOne-Banks *

HDB Lease Buyback Scheme

The proposed HDB lease buyback scheme could benefit as many as 25k elderly. It is to supplement the retirement savings of older, low-income owners while allowing them to continue living in their homes.

The Government will shorten the lease to 30yrs and buys back the remaining lease. Should the owners outlived the 30yrs, they will still have a place to stay, but may not be their own homes.

The amount of the buyback will subject to market value, and the payouts will be in 3 parts. To encourage people to sign up for the scheme, Government will give out a subsidy to owners.

Eligibility:
1) >=62 yrs old, AND
2) Own 2 or 3-room unit, AND
3) Have had only 1 HDB subsidy.

Payouts:
1) Initial lump sum,
2) Monthly installments over a fixed number of years,
3) An insurance plan that will give owners an income for life after (1) & (2) run out.

* AsiaOne-Buyback , AsiaOne-Retirement , iProperty-Resale *

*****
I do wish tt the Govt opens up the scheme so tt more elderly are eligible for it, such as remove the condition of 'hv had only 1 HDB subsidy'.
2 & 3-Rm flats gonna be hot again ... ...