Oct CPI at 3.6%

At 3.6%, it was the highest in 16 yrs!

Oct CPI: 101.8
Mth-to-Mth: 1.3% (Last mth: -0.3%)
Yr-to-Yr: 3.6% (Last mth: 2.7%)
1st 10mths 2007: 1.6%

* SingStat-Oct CPI , AsiaOne-Inflation , AsiaOne-RealIntRates *

One More Mall

Iluma, a new $160m entertainment centre at Bugis developed by Jack Investment. It sits on a 95,799 sf site, and rentals are expected to be in the range of $10 - $30 psf. It is expected to be completed by 4Q08.

* CNA-Iluma *

*****

More malls???

Balestier Terraces Enbloc Sealed

15 FH terrace owners in Balestier (Jln Bunga Raya) sold their properties collectively for $61m, making each owner richer by abt $4m.

Land area occupied by the houses is about 24k sf. But if a road can be included as well (subjects to SLA approval), then the area can expand to abt 33k sf. The plot, with a plot ratio of 2.8, can build approximate 56units of 1,500sf each, up to 36-storey high. DC payable is abt $263k. This worked out to be abt $739psf ppr.

The buyers are a Chinese property developer with a Singaporean partner.

* AsiaOne-BT:Enbloc , AsiaOne-ST:Enbloc *

Changes to Executive Condo (EC) Policies

HDB announced changes to EC policies yesterday.

(1) 1st Timer
- Developers need to reserve >=90% of the units for 1st timers in the 1st mth of the sale (align to DBSS sale).
- Allows to buy a 2nd new EC, HDB or DBSS flat after a 30-mth wait upon disposal of their ECs (align to private housing owner buying a new HDB requirement). Resale levy may be payable:

(a) Taken $30k CPF housing grant for 1st EC? YES
--> Buying 2nd new HDB? YES
--> $55k levy payable upon booking of 2nd flat

(b) Taken $30k CPF housing grant for 1st EC? YES
--> Buying 2nd new EC/DBSS or resale flat? YES
--> No levy payable

(2) 2nd Timer
No resale levy payable when buying a new EC/DBSS (align to DBSS policy).

EC's History:
In 1995, govt introduced Executive Condominium Housing Scheme (ECHS) to bridge the gap between public and private housing. So that professional couples with household income <=$10k/mth can own a 'private' housing with some restrictions, which slowly free up after 5yrs and 10yrs. To date, there are 23 EC with abt 10,400 units developed and sold by private developers.

* HDB-EC , AsiaOne-EC *

*****

Good news. Hope tt govt can loosen some restrictions on foreign ownership.

Going Up?

Saw tis in today's The Sunday Times ... ...

Signs of A Cooling Market?

The white site at Marina View attracted only 2 bids, and the highest bid by Macquarie Global Property Advisers (MGPA) was only at $952.9m. This was a far cry from the 1st site's price of $2.02b, also by MGPA.

Some other areas, such as a residential parcel at Enggor St also received only 2 bids, and an office site at Tampines with only 1 bid. Investors/developers seem to have tone down with stock market volatility, credit crunch uncertainty and recent govt intervention, such as removing the deferred payment scheme.

(1) Residential/Commercial, Enggor St
Land 3,036.2 sqm, GFA: 25,504 sqm, at $233.8 mil ($852 psf ppr) [Nov 07]
(2) Commercial/Hotel/Residential, Marina View
GFA 113,580 sqm, at $952.9 mil ($780 psf ppr) [Dec 07]

* AsiaOne-MarinaView *

No Need to Cool Property Market Now

Once again, Minister Mah said that the govt is not gg to over-regulate or interfere in the (pty) mkt if they don't have to. Thus, govt is not planning any new measure to cool the mkt for now.

3Q sub-sales made up abt 22% of total sales in central S'pore; and 2wks ago, the popular Deferred Payment Scheme was removed. This followed speculation that capital gain tax may be the next card. Capital gain tax was introduced in 1996, but lifted in 2001.

* CNA-Pty Mkt *

*****

Note: One may still be liable to pay for capital gain tax if one is a pty trader ... ... * Case-NP vs IRAS *

Inflation Likely to Hit 5% in 1Q08

CPI may surge to 4 - 5% in 1Q08, and at an ave rate of 3% next yr. The previous high was 4% in Jul 1991.

The spike is due to very low CPI of 0.5% in 1Q07, and low oil prices. It will then settle down to a more 'normal' condition in 2H08.

* AsiaOne-CPI , RadarGaga-CPI *

*****

We r feeling the pinch & pressure now bcos prices from noodle, bread to electricity, transport, ie daily necessities, are all driven up due to shortages. Ytd, a sch bus driver lamented higher price in petrol and everything, and she wondered what the govt has been doing.

R pple more unhappy when the economy is flying and inflation is gg up, compared to a moderate economy where inflation is low? Don't increase in income and employment rate help to offset all these?

Btw, next yr pty tax is gg to increase too as the valuation has gone up by approx 20% ... ... CNA-AV.

3Q Employment Estimates

Employment
Employment grew by 57.6k in 3Q, lower than 2Q 64.4k. The total employment gains for 1st 9mths reaches 171.5k (2006: 176k).

(In thousands)	Employment Change					Employment Level as at Sep 2007 p
	3Q 06	4Q 06	1Q 07	2Q 07	3Q 07p
Total*	43.0	51.5	49.4	64.4	57.6	2,667.4
Manufacturing	11.3	10.9	10.1	15.9	11.8	555.3
Construction	5.6	5.8	5.4	10.9	10.8	282.7
Services	25.9	34.4	33.7	36.8	34.5	1,811.6

^{Source: MOM}

^P: Preliminary estimates

*: Data for the three major sectors do not add up to the total as the latter includes agriculture, fishing, quarrying, utilities and sewerage & waste management

Unemployment
Unemployment rate dropped to 1.7% in Sept from 2.3% in Jun, and is the lowest in a decade.

	Sep 06	Dec 06	Mar 07	Jun 07	Sep 07p
Seasonally Adjusted
Overall (%)	2.7	2.6	2.9	2.3	1.7
Resident (%)	3.6	3.6	4.0	3.1	2.3
Non-Seasonally Adjusted
Overall (%)	2.4	2.6	2.5	2.9	1.5
Resident (%)	3.2	3.6	3.4	4.0	2.1

^{Source: MOM}

^P: Preliminary estimates

Retrenchment
1,700 workers were axed in 3Q, lower than 2Q 1,918. Majority were from manufacturing, and some from service industries.

* MOM-3Q Estimates , PM Speech-NTUC *

Fed Cuts Another Quarter Point

The central bank has reduced the federal funds rate (what banks charge each other for overnight loans) to 4.5% and discount rate (what the Fed charges banks for short-term loans) to 5% to prevent the country from going into a recession. This was announced amid government's report that the economy grew at 3.9% in 3Q.

Consumer spending, which is responsible for 2/3 of the US economic activity, is showing signs of weakening, even though 3Q consumer confidence rose at 3% rate.

Employment looks more robust, with a government report showed that 110k jobs were added in Sept, while Aug hiring figure was revised from a loss of 4k to a gain of 89k.

* CNBC-Fed , MktWatch-Fed , Reuters-Fed *